Poll dancing November 2013

David Farrar reports the results of the latest 3 News poll:

Party support:

• National 46.3% (-3.2%)
• Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
• Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
• Maori 1.2% (-0.4%)
• United Future 
• Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

This result would, assuming no electorate seat changes, result in a centre-right government led by National.

What if, though, the Maori Party was to lose its seats to Labour? To find out, I'll have to fire up ye mighty MMP calculator:

YOUR VIRTUAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

Party name	Party Votes won	Party seat entitlement	No. of electorate seats won	No. of list MPs	Total MPs		% of MPs
ACT New Zealand	0.80%	1	1	0	1		0.83%
Green Party	10.40%	14	0	14	14		11.67%
Labour Party	32.20%	42	25	17	42		35.00%
Mana	1.30%	2	1	1	2		1.67%
National Party	46.30%	60	42	18	60		50.00%
United Future	0.80%	1	1	0	1		0.83%
Totals	91.80%	120	70	50	120		100.00%

So, we'd still have a centre-right government. What if Act and United Future lost their seats to National though?

YOUR VIRTUAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

Party name	Party Votes won	Party seat entitlement	No. of electorate seats won	No. of list MPs	Total MPs		% of MPs
Green Party	10.40%	14	0	14	14		11.57%
Labour Party	32.20%	42	22	20	42		34.71%
Mana	1.30%	2	1	1	2		1.65%
Māori Party	1.20%	2	3	0	3	*	2.48%
National Party	46.30%	60	43	17	60		49.59%
Totals	91.40%	120	69	52	121		100.00%

...the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Or perhaps, as some have suggested, National could do a deal with the Conservatives and give them a seat:

YOUR VIRTUAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

Party name	Party Votes won	Party seat entitlement	No. of electorate seats won	No. of list MPs	Total MPs		% of MPs
ACT New Zealand	0.80%	1	1	0	1		0.83%
Conservative Party	2.80%	3	1	2	3		2.48%
Green Party	10.40%	13	0	13	13		10.74%
Labour Party	32.20%	40	22	18	40		33.06%
Mana	1.30%	2	1	1	2		1.65%
Māori Party	1.20%	2	3	0	3	*	2.48%
National Party	46.30%	58	41	17	58		47.93%
United Future	0.80%	1	1	0	1		0.83%
Totals	95.80%	120	70	51	121		100.00%

...again, we've got a centre-right government, most likely National + Conservatives and support from UF, Act and Maori parties.