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Sunday, 24 November 2013

Colin or Winston?

Andrea Vance's interview with Colin Craig makes for fascinating reading. Main points of interest are:

  • Craig seems to be backing away from running in Upper Harbour, despite implying that he would on Thursday last week. It looks like Christine Rankin may now stand. Given that Paula Bennett is going to stand for National, that'll be one intriguing race to watch.
  • There's a lot of talk of Craig stealing NZ First's support base. Craig takes a swipe at Winston's age (probably not something that'll go down well with Winston's support base!).
  • The Conservatives do actually have some policies. Some are crazy (e.g. getting rid of all fluoride from water supply, presumably overruling local authorities) others sensible (e.g. a tax free threshold under $25k)
The big risk for National now is that the Conservatives and NZ First split the socially conservative, economically centrist vote between them and neither get back into Parliament. This is fairly easily solved though - by John Key stating for the third time* we can't work with Winston Peters, and that he can work with Colin Craig. 

*The truth is complete if only I've stated it thrice.

Sunday, 10 November 2013

Poll dancing November 2013

David Farrar reports the results of the latest 3 News poll:

Party support:
  • National 46.3% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
  • Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)
This result would, assuming no electorate seat changes, result in a centre-right government led by National.

What if, though, the Maori Party was to lose its seats to Labour? To find out, I'll have to fire up ye mighty MMP calculator:

YOUR VIRTUAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

Party nameParty Votes wonParty seat entitlementNo. of electorate seats wonNo. of list MPsTotal MPs% of MPs
ACT New Zealand0.80%11010.83%
Green Party10.40%140141411.67%
Labour Party32.20%4225174235.00%
Mana1.30%21121.67%
National Party46.30%6042186050.00%
United Future0.80%11010.83%
Totals91.80%1207050120100.00%

So, we'd still have a centre-right government. What if Act and United Future lost their seats to National though?

YOUR VIRTUAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

Party nameParty Votes wonParty seat entitlementNo. of electorate seats wonNo. of list MPsTotal MPs % of MPs
Green Party10.40%140141411.57%
Labour Party32.20%4222204234.71%
Mana1.30%21121.65%
Māori Party1.20%2303*2.48%
National Party46.30%6043176049.59%
Totals91.40%1206952121 100.00%

...the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Or perhaps, as some have suggested, National could do a deal with the Conservatives and give them a seat:

YOUR VIRTUAL ELECTIONS RESULTS

Party nameParty Votes wonParty seat entitlementNo. of electorate seats wonNo. of list MPsTotal MPs % of MPs
ACT New Zealand0.80%11010.83%
Conservative Party2.80%31232.48%
Green Party10.40%130131310.74%
Labour Party32.20%4022184033.06%
Mana1.30%21121.65%
Māori Party1.20%2303*2.48%
National Party46.30%5841175847.93%
United Future0.80%11010.83%
Totals95.80%1207051121 100.00%

...again, we've got a centre-right government, most likely National + Conservatives and support from UF, Act and Maori parties.