Sunday, 23 August 2015

The problem with memes

Jerome Mika, a former Labour candidate posted this meme on Facebook... I don't even know where to begin. This emphasises the problems with memes...

For starters, great as Michael Joseph Savage was, the New Zealand economy was in recovery mode by the time the first Labour Government was elected in 1935 (the nadir of the Great Depression, in terms of economic and employment growth, was 1932). We certainly didn't come out of the Great Depression with "no debt" - although we did have the Reserve Bank and State Advances Corporation, both creations of the United-Reform Coalition which preceded the first Labour Government (a fact strangely forgotten).

Savage's Government did introduce free milk in schools from 1937 to improve nutrition, but certainly didn't introduce free school meals. The greatest achievement of the Savage Government was the Social Security Act 1938, but strangely that gets no mention. In terms of giving hope, that wasn't too hard to do after the tough years of the great depression. Labour's own version of New Zealand's history feeds its own wonky recollection of this time exactly because of its ability to claim credit for the post depression recovery. No-one recalls, for example, that Labour actually initially supported the United Party in government from 1928-30...

Secondly, there's the statement on John Key; of course this is the negative contrast with Michael Joseph Savage. Well, straight away the claim that New Zealand now has the "biggest debt on record" is nonsense. That award (in terms of public debt to GDP) goes to the Lange Government in 1987:


Since then New Zealand's public debt to GDP has tracked downwards, although did tick upwards again post Global Financial Crisis and Christchurch Earthquakes. I'm pretty sure no-one in Labour would seriously argue the Key government shouldn't have spent up post GFC or earthquakes; in fact the opposite is true - for all their complaints about public debt, they wanted to spend even more than this government did, irrespective of the outcomes.

Now it is true that there are homeless people in New Zealand. A recent parliamentary research paper notes the plethora of statistics on the issue - it's not clear if homelessness is getting worse or better. What is clear though is that there's plenty of statistics on poverty; what's interesting though is that the numbers in "absolute" poverty, according to recent Ministry of Social Development reports, is falling. However, relative poverty - i.e. the number of children growing up in homes below the medium income - is apparently increasing.

Then there's free school meals. In this case, the Key government has actually gone further than the Savage government did through the Kickstart Breakfast programme. Sure, the Government voted down the "Feed the Kids" Bill, but that was bad law and would only have helped disadvantaged children if they went to a school within particular decile bands, and helped kids who didn't need it but happened to go to lower decile schools. I would much rather we increased the family tax credit and benefits so that families could afford to feed their children in the first place - you know, as the government did in the 2015 budget just passed.

Then there's the tax switch. The "tax cuts for the rich" meme is a well-worn canard. But the fact is one-third of all income tax comes from the top 6% of taxpayers. And anyway, at the same time as reducing income tax, the current government got rid of a whole host of income tax exemptions, such as depreciation on property and abolished Loss-Attributing Qualifying Companies (LAQCs) which means it's harder for wealthy New Zealanders to reduce their income tax. Unfortunately the centre-left is obsessed with the top tax rate rather than actual tax policy that's equitable.

As for hope under this government - I'll let voters decide.

Friday, 21 August 2015

Flag change conspiracies

There's plenty of conspiracies about as the flag debate heats up and we head into the first referendum.

On the right is one of my favourites. It repeats a common thread that the reason why we're having referendums on the flag changing is to give "due authority" to the enactment of the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA).

This is nonsense. To enact the TPPA, parliament must pass legislation ratifying the agreement. This is exactly the same as for every other free trade agreement; the most recent one being the New Zealand-Korea Free Trade Agreement which is currently before our parliament.

Recently the conspiracies seem to have shifted to telling people to waste their votes in the first referendum. This would be funny if it weren't so ironic. An informal vote will be counted as such, but they won't affect the final result. So they're a wasted vote. If you're skeptical of change but still have a preference for what the flag might change to, the smart thing to do is to rank your next favourite alternative as "1" - that way your vote won't be wasted. Nothing about changing the flag has anything to do with the TPPA - so don't waste your vote.

Tuesday, 14 July 2015

Trotter jumps the shark

Chris Trotter's latest column really jumps the shark. It's a pitiful attempt at reclaiming the moral high ground Labour had thought it stood on until Sunday.

Take the central claim Trotter is making, that China has replaced Britain as our "imperial" power. Labour, in its clumsy attempt at directing the narrative on housing affordability to blaming foreign buyers the Chinese, is simply reflecting on this.

You just cannot seriously argue that China now occupies the same place for New Zealand economically as Britain did up until 1972. That is autarkist nonsense that doesn't stand up to analysis.

For starters New Zealand's exports to the UK were a massive proportion of our economy, right up until the 1960s - where they averaged around the 55% mark. They've now fallen so low Statistics NZ count them as part of the EU. For this past year, China accounted for 23% of exports and 17% of imports. While growth has been strong it's highly unlikely to continue at the pace it has, with growth tapering off this year to May.

Then there's foreign investment. Despite what you might think watching or reading the news, the biggest foreign investors in New Zealand are still Australia, the United States and the UK, in that order.